Sunday, 15 January 2017

A632.1.4.RB - Multistage Decision-Making

A632.1.4.RB_Manglona, Matthew-Napu_Multistage Decision-Making



When it comes to my decision making process depending on the situation I usually go through a barrel of emotion, intellect, and reason when it comes to making that decision. My emotion is that what am I feeling at this current time? Is there a reason to let my emotions be involved in my decision making (e.g. does it deal with someone I don’t like?) then there is my intellect, do I know enough about the situation where I can rely on regulations or policies in place to move forward with my decision? Or there the reason, what is my reason to make the decision I make (will it benefit me? My organization?) All these come into factor when presented with a question that needs a solution (decision making). Hoch & Kunreuther (2005) wrote “when we are actively learning (seeking out information) we tend to filter information to confirm our opinion. (p.593) the process discussed in this chapter presents a blue print on how to make those decisions. The formula presented seemed kind of extreme however it did bring sense to the equation of decision making. Do we forecast our decision based on what we want to know? Or do we base it on what we do know?

Doya & Shadlen(2012) stated that “an appealing idea is that similar computational principles are at play in a wide variety of decisions, whether they ultimately concern propositions, perceptions, actions, value preferences or strategies.”(p. 912) When it comes to forward planning, the sole basis of understanding what is in store for your organization when presented with such decision questions is just that. Forward planning from my understanding and experience is needed to ensure that things don’t mess up. In the Army we plan out months in advance for a mission and as each month gets closer, things change, and so do decisions. In this case, foreseeing that decisions made will have outcomes that change throughout the process.

I would apply optimal dynamic decision analysis (at least in my realm of work) with what has worked in the past and what we are truly trying to accomplish. An example I would give is the retention of soldiers in my organization. My organization is on the verge of getting our budget cut dramatically because we just cannot keep soldiers within our ranks. A dynamic decision analysis would bring on the questions of how do we retain them? What incentives do we give our soldiers wanting to get out to stay? What do we as leaders need to do currently and in the future to ensure that we keep them based off our current operations? Is it better training, administrative and financial help? These questions we ask ourselves will assist in the forward planning and decision making process because we know how to get them in the service but it is quite difficult to keep them in.




References:
Doya, K., & Shadlen, M. N. (2012). Decision making. Current Opinion in Neurobiology, 22(6), 911-913. doi:10.1016/j.conb.2012.10.003

Hoch, S. J., & Kunreuther, H. C. (2005). Wharton on making decisions. (1st edition.). Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons Inc.


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