A632.3.3.RB - Framing Complex Decisions.

A632.3.3.RB _Manglona, Matthew-Napu_ Framing Complex Decisions. 

When it comes to the different methodologies as described to this blog for my organization, everything ties in together. When it comes to the environmental decisions that need to be made everything that my staff encounters all is inputted to statistical data on a weekly basis. Our data rises and declines based off the seasons. Hoch, Kunreuther & Gunther (2001) stated that “companies, traders, and financial intermediaries have developed sophisticated means to track weather to help predict demand and supply conditions.” (p. 1343) my staff deals with the drug interdiction island wide and we use the data given to incoprate trends and behavior which is all dictated by the weather during the calendar year. During our hot months (summer) our drug data input is at its peak, but once summer is over we see a dramatic decline, then once December hits we another peak all the way till mid calendar year until summer approaches once again. This allows for me and my staff to focus on putting personnel in designated areas to ensure command and control of our drug interdiction and deterrence.

This process works best for me and my staff because it establishes a rhythm for us to follow to ensure we are on track with our objectives. We do incorporate off set patterns to make those smuggling across our borders not catch on our tactics. Hoch, Kunreuther & Gunther (2001) also discuss that “these tools allow for decision makers not only to anticipate the weather, but also to do something about it in planning their supply portfolio.” (p. 1352) The consequences to this approach is that like every battle rhythm someone eventually catches on, the remedy to this equation is to simply off set the patterns to ensure a guessing game is in play, solely not relying on the weather patterns given.

In a complex environment of decision making Hoch, Kunreuther & Gunther (2001) discuss this method as having interactions across multiple system boundaries surrounding a particular decision context. In which these system interactions cannot go ignored. (p. 1352) The three pillars discussed for these models are data, the model itself, and looking at alternative decisions in the context of the model. When it comes to my career field noticing trends and assessing each one to capitalize on has become a dire asset to help us come to a conclusion on our decision making process. Hoch, Kunreuther & Gunther (2001) described that when information is combined and put up for a consensus it provides a very detailed picture of what is available to include risks that come with it. (p.1367)

Now when it comes to multiple stake holders, Hoch, Kunreuther & Gunther (2001) discussed that stakeholders include competitors, regulators, and public interest groups. These external factors play a role in my decision making abilities. (p. 1393)They play the role as Hoch, Kunreuther & Gunther (2001) when seeking guidance from others plays a crucial role when it comes to decision making. I always use my predecessors or mentors within my organization as an “outside looking in” tool for me to shape my decision making so long as it coincides with my strategy. The negative consequence to this for me in this case is that I tend to heavily favor their recommendations and fail to make the decisions myself. I believe that if I was to weigh it all out and think of every possible outlet that comes with the different options I will be able to make a more firm decision to whatever issues that come in front of me.

Reference: 

Hoch, S. J., & Kunreuther, H. C. (2005). Wharton on making decisions. (1st edition.). Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons Inc.